Nobody understand exactly what is going on there, too much mischief and complexity. But very recently Kurds decided to form their own state, our guess is that it will contribute to clarify the situation greatly. But it will be in a bad way for the western powers and the poor Kurds.
the citadel of Erbil
Nor the Syrians the Iranians or the Turks are welcoming the creation of a Kurdish state, particularly the turks who view that development as dangerous for their own existence as it could permeate to the Turkish Kurdistan. And we do not speak about the Shiite majority of Iraq which is already in a state of war against them. In our view it’s too much force against a fragile, recent and tiny state, he will not survive and it’s demise will be another blow to the situation of the westerns power in the middle east. In short when Erbil will be crushed the US France and UK will have no influence in Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Syria. The bulk of the middle east will be out of reach and in the hands of regionals powers namely Iran and Turkey. What a fall from grace.
Forty years ago the USA had a firm grasp on the Middle East except for Syria an Irak, where the Baas party was holding power, and where the USSR could meddle, but it was all. Turkey was an ally as was Iran Israel and Saudi Arabia. Even Egypt was rotating west under Sadate. In short the western powers hold a firm grip on almost all oil producing countries in the region with the notable exception of Iraq.
The fall of the Shah in 1979 was a first setback, it made Iran a fierce enemy. But Iran is not only a country producing 3 millions barrels of oil a day, and potentially a giant producer of natural gas, it is the biggest Shiite country and as so it play a leading role for Shiites in the middle east. That is a very important point because most of the oil producing countries in the region are Shiite populated. Even the Hasa which is the place Saudis are pumping oil is habited by Shiites which are not that loyal to the Saudi princes. That dangerous situation was clearly illustrated by the events in Barhein, where shia riots where squashed by the reigning Sunnite family with the help of Saudi Arabia. The weight of Shiism is felt all around and it had greats effects those last decades. In short where there is oil Shiites are not that far. It is no surprise that the western powers choose to sustain Sunnites Royal Families which were illegitimate and fragile, they were more easily dealt with. But even contained Iran was a force to be reckoned with.
For example Saddam saw the isolation of Iran as an opportunity to wage war against them crushing a power which could foster an internal opposition dangerous to his bloody reign. He was encouraged by other Sunnites ruled countries in the Persian golf who saw Shiites as a threat to their security and internal stability. By making him useful Saddam relieved the pressure from not being in the hand of the west even if France entertain a good an fruitful relation which was going as far as to sold Irak a nuclear reactor (Osirak). All that stopped abruptly when Saddam took the option of invading Irak, probably the worst decision possible in retrospect. The west was simply too eager to put Irak under their yoke to resist the temptation. Despite two Iraq wars the US and its allies where unable to take hold decisively in Irak especially for the oil which is what matters the most. Exxon and others abandoned their contracts and where replaced by Russian companies except for the Kurdish region where the autonomous authority decided to go with Exxon and Total.In truth Kurdistan is the only region of Irak which is open for business in Irak, 2 millions barrels are at stakes.
Our point is that even the support of France and the USA will not be enough for that small oil producing country it will be crushed by the Iranians, the Turks and the Iraqis. It will make things much more clearer as old regional powers will appear as the real masters of the area. Then quickly the shiite power in oil producing region will start to be felt very heavily, as it is now felt in Yemen.Turkey will try to play the equalizing power modulo generous gifts from the Golf. In short a new game is about to start and the westerns power will only have cards not the hand.